Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Royals/Tigers UNDER 8

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER 8 ticket between the Royals and Tigers tonight.  There are expected to be 15-20 MPH winds blowing in from right inside pitcher-friendly Comerica Park in Detroit.

The Tigers have one of the worst lineups in baseball.  They are hitting .219 and scoring 3.9 runs per game this season, including .209 and 3.2 runs per game at home.  The Royals haven't been great away from Kauffman Stadium, hitting just .205 and scoring 3.9 runs per game on the highway this season.

Both pitchers are off to great starts this season.  Brady Singer is 2-1 with a 2.76 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in five starts for the Royals.  Casey Mize is 1-0 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in four starts for the Tigers.  Singer is 6-1 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 12 career starts against Detroit.  Mize is 2-1 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in seven career starts against Kansas City, and the UNDER is 6-1 in those seven starts.

The UNDER is 18-3 in Mize's 21 career starts in the first half of the season, including 10-1 UNDER in his 11 April starts.  Kansas City is 10-2 UNDER against AL teams slugging .400 or worse this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

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15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Guardians/Braves OVER 8.5

The Atlanta Braves have arguably the best lineup in baseball.  They are hitting .284 and scoring 6.0 runs per game this season.  The Cleveland Guardians are much better offensively than they get credit for.  They are scoring 5.2 runs per game overall and 5.4 runs per game on the road.

This is a very low total for these two potent offenses up against these two suspect starting pitchers.  Tanner Bibee is 2-0 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in five starts for the Guardians this season.  Charlie Morton is 2-0 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in four starts for the Braves.

The OVER is 24-9 in Morton's last 33 starts in the first half of the season.  He is a notorious slow starter.  Both teams should have their way at the plate today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-125)

The Chicago White Sox are the worst team in baseball this season.  They are 4-22 this season while scoring 2.5 runs per game and allowing 5.6 runs per game, getting outscored by 3.1 runs per game.  After a shocking win yesterday in Game 1 over the Rays, I expect them to get back to being the terrible team they are today.

The Rays have a big advantage on the mound.  Aaron Civale is 2-2 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in five starts for the Rays this season.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in seven of his 10 career starts against the White Sox.

Jonathan Cannon is 0-1 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in two starts for the White Sox this season.  He has allowed 7 earned runs and 14 base runners in 8 2/3 innings to the Twins and Royals.

Chicago is 0-15 after losing four of its last five games this season and getting outscored by 4.6 runs per game in this spot.  Civale's teams are 22-3 in his last 25 starts against bad teams that are outscored by one or more runs per game on the season and winning by 2.2 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Rays on the Run Line Saturday.

15* AL Saturday Total DOMINATOR on A's/Orioles OVER 8

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the A's and Orioles this afternoon.  There are expected to be 15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in Baltimore this afternoon.

The Orioles are capable of covering this total on their own.  They'll tee off on JP Sears, who has allowed 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 9 innings in his last two starts against the Orioles.

Cole Irvin is vulnerable for the Orioles.  he is 1-1 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in four starts this season, including 0-1 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in two home starts.  Irvin has a 7.00 ERA in two career starts against Oakland.

Baltimore is 10-2 OVER as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season.  Oakland is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 road games against excellent power teams that average 1.5 or more homers per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+122)

The Baltimore Orioles are highly motivated for a victory today after getting upset as -275 favorites to the A's in Game 1.  They came into this series with a rest advantage over the A's, and that rest advantage will pay dividends today.  The A's have most of their top bullpen arms unavailable after needing them to upset the Yankees and Orioles in consecutive days Thursday and Friday.

Cole Irvin fired 6 2/3 shutout innings against the Royals in his last start.  Irvin allowed just one run in 5 innings of a 7-2 victory in his last start against the A's.  He'll be opposed by JP Sears, who has allowed 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 9 innings in his last two starts against the Orioles.  The A's lost those two games by 11 and 4 runs.

The Orioles are 8-0 in Irvin's last eight starts against an AL team slugging .410 or worse and winning by 2.5 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Orioles on the Run Line Saturday.

15* Thunder/Pelicans TNT ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +1

The New Orleans Pelicans were knocked out of the playoffs by the Oklahoma City Thunder in the play-in round last year.  Now they are down 2-0 in this series after losing the first two games on the road.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 when they return home today, and I expect them to get the job done with one of their best efforts of the season.

I think the 94-92 loss in Game 1 was hard to recover from because they had every chance to win.  The Thunder took advantage and crushed the Pelicans 124-92 in Game 2.  However, the Thunder shot 59% as a team and 14-of-29 (48.3%) from 3-point range in Game 2.  They are due some negative shooting regression.

The Pelicans are due some positive shooting regression after shooting 38.5% as a team and 11-of-39 (28.2%) from 3 in Game 1, and 7-of-26 (26.9%) from 3 in Game 2.  Role players usually play much better at home because they are a lot more comfortable.  They weren't comfortable in those two road games in a hostile crowd in OKC.

The Pelicans were a tired team coming into this series as they were life and death at the end of the season trying to win games to get out of the play-in.  Then they had two play-in games.  But they have now had two days off in between games for a second consecutive game and this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days.  That's another reason I think they are primed for a big effort because they are fresh.  Bet the Pelicans in Game 3 Saturday.

15* Cavaliers/Magic TNT Early ANNIHILATOR on Orlando -2

The Orlando Magic have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They are 30-11 SU & 28-13 ATS at home this season.  After shooting terribly in Cleveland the first two games, they shot 51.1% and won 121-83 at home in Game 3.

I don't expect it to come as easily for the Magic at home in Game 4, but I do expect them to get another win and cover to even this series.  Donovan Mitchell got hobbled yet again in Game 3 and wasn't himself, and even though he will play in Game 4 he isn't anywhere near 100%.  The Cavaliers are vulnerable when that's the case.

The Cavaliers are 0-6 SU on the road in the playoffs under current head coach JB Bickerstaff.  The Magic are 20-7 ATS as home favorites this season.  Cleveland is 9-20 ATS in its last 29 games as a road underdog of 6 points or less.  Bet the Magic in Game 4 Saturday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Denver -3

The Los Angeles Lakers are a dead team walking.  They just lost their 11th consecutive game to the Denver Nuggets in this head-to-head series in a must-win Game 3.  That's three blown halftime leads by the Lakers in three games in this series.

The Lakers are now completely demoralized and won't show up for Game 4.  Darvin Ham is making zero halftime adjustments and the Nuggets are making all the right moves after intermission.  Ham is a dead man walking.

The Lakers go too much iso ball in the 2H, and both Anthony Davis and LeBron James have had to play too many minutes because they are getting zero help.  They will once again run out of gas in the 2H, especially with only one day in between Games 3 and 4.  This series is over.  Bet the Nuggets in Game 4 Saturday.